The American invasion of Iraq has been a catastrophe of epic proportions
for the Iraqi population – apart from the massive loss of Iraqi lives, the
destruction of most of what was left of the country’s physical infrastructure,and the creation of more than five million refugees – one-fifth of the total population. But it has also been a significant disaster for Bush and American global power more generally. Today, in the wake of this set-back, and in anticipation of a new presidency, the question that looms is: what is the likely fallout of this debacle for American strategy? Since we cannot predict the future, the most reasonable course is to examine the logic of the invasion itself – the interests involved in it, the depth of elite commitment to its goals, and the larger strategic purpose that it served.

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