The Southern African Revolution

Abstract

Writing twenty years ago in The Socialist Register 1969l Giovanni Arrighi and I painted a bleak picture of independent Africa's prospects, suggesting the likely 'stability of existing neo-colonial structures' for the foreseeable future and arguing that 'the "Latin Americanization" of independent Africa is well underway'. This has proven to be an accurate prophesy, although, to be honest, we could not have predicted, even in our wildest imaginings, just how catastrophic for Africa this denouement to the continent's march towards independence would prove to be. Was there a bright side to the picture in 1969? 'Hope,' we argued, 'must instead be focused upon the liberation struggle in southern Africa, the implications of which are bound to have truly continental dimensions'. We did counsel against 'any illusions concerning the nature and short-term prospects of the struggle in southern Africa' but concluded that, 'at the present historical moment, this (struggle) provides the main, if not the only, leverage for revolutionary change in Sub-Saharan Africa'. The point stands. Of course, the conventional wisdom of imperial planners of the time was very different. 1969 was also the year of the notorious National Security Study Memorandum 39, a National Security Council report which apparently induced Henry Kissinger to conclude, in the words of one of the Memorandum's scenarios, that 'the whites are here to stay (in southern Africa) and the only way that constructive change can come about is through them. There is no hope for the blacks to gain the political rights they seek through violence...' Unfortunately for the likes of Kissinger history, in southern Africa, was already moving forward with seven league boots. Contrary to NSSM 39 'the outlook for the rebellions' in the 'Portuguese territories' of Mozambique and Angola was not 'one of continued stalemate'. Nor could the 'white regime' of Rhodesia 'hold out indefinitely', its internal security system able to 'meet foreseeable threats'. Indeed not even South Africa could, 'for the foreseeable future,... maintain internal security', even if it has been able, on balance, to 'effectively counter insurgent activity'.